Monday, May 7, 2007

Listen to the auction - part 2

You have:


Auction starts on your left by Fred Stewart with a multi 2D showing a weak 2 in either major or some strong alternatives. Kit Woolsey on your right bids 2S, to play in spades and may have game interest in hearts, and he jumps to 4H over Fred's 2NT showing H's and better than minimum. What do you lead?

A member of the Australian OzOne squad chose a passive T of clubs in a BBO practise match against a Bramley squad, resulting in -650. I think a spade is clearcut when you think it through. What does Woolsey have if he doesn't have any game interest vs a weak 2 in spades? Spade honors? Not.



Even with a spade lead, East may go wrong. He may cash the ace of clubs, hoping for 2 spades, a club and a heart instead of shifting to a diamond (fearing that the club in dummy goes away on a diamond H). After a club lead, it was all over. No second chances.

At the other table, the contract was a heart partscore and letting the game make made a 17 imp difference. Not that it mattered that much in a practise match. Ususally hurts anyway ;)

Listen, think, lead...


Shen Ting said...

So...any views on how to prevent East from going wrong?

ulven said...

Yes, of course. I thought you'd never ask ;)

Shifting to a diamond costs if declarer has KQx or QT9 (and withholds the Q) and is necessary if partner has K+Q/T (or missguess if declarer has QT(x) and declarer has C K.

Cashing the club requires less from partner (only A or Kx in trumps).

So, what should we do?

I think the vital clue is that South would not jump to game missing top honors (AKQ) in two suits; both spades and clubs!

Looking at AQ in spades and queen of C in dummy is a strong indication that declarer has the K of clubs.

D shift could be wrong if declarer has xx/AQx/QT9/KJxxx but I don't think he would have jumped to game with only one A and one K; he'd bid 3C or similar.

It may be wrong if declarer has xx/AQx/KQx/KJxxx. What would he do? Jump or bid 3C?

All in all, I think the D shift is indicated.